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Saturday, January 24, 2004

Primary History
What do early primaries mean? Let's see:

Year...........Iowa..............New Hampshire............Nominee
1972..........Muskie............Muskie......................McGovern
1976..........Carter.............Carter......................Carter
1980..........Carter.............Carter......................Carter
1984..........Mondale..........Hart.........................Mondale
1988..........Gephardt........Dukakis....................Dukakis
1992..........Harkin.............Tsongas..................Clinton
1996...........N/A.................Clinton....................Clinton
2000...........Gore...............Gore.......................Gore
2004...........Kerry...............???.........................???

Noteworthy: In 1992, Clinton came in third in Iowa with 2.8%. In 1988, Bush came in third in Iowa with 18%. Take heart Dr. Dean.

So five times, one candidate swept both early races and in four cases, he got the nomination. In two of those four, he was an incumbant president. Three times the first two races split. Of those, one nomination went to the Iowa winner, one went to the New Hampshire winner, and a dark horse got the third.

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