Saturday, September 04, 2004

Major Bush Surge
Wow! I not see this coming. Ace was predicting a mere one point improvement, but Bush has opened a commanding (but not insurmountable) lead in not one, but two polls now. 52-41 in Time and an identical 52-41 in Newsweek. Is it a blip or a trend? Did the end of the convention build on this or undermine it? What are the electoral implications? The Votemaster has Bush up 18 electoral votes, after trailing most of the year. And as he points out, these polls do not yet reflect the convention. Although the convention probably helped Bush, we can't know for certain until the polls come out.

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