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Sunday, October 03, 2004

Debate Aftermath
Now that there is a little more daylight between the first debate and the present, I will summarize what the popular outcome seems to be. I already mentioned an ARG poll that showed people felt Kerry won by about 14 points. This Gallup Poll gives Kerry a 16 point win. A closer look shows that the polled public also agrees with my take, that Kerry was smoother and more eloquent as a speaker, but not more attractive as a President.

............................................................Kerry.........Bush........diff
Expressed himself more clearly................60...............32..........+28
Had a good understanding of issues............41...............41...........+0
Agreed with you on the issues...................46...............49...........-3
Was more believable................................45...............50...........-5
Was more likeable.....................................41...............48...........-7
Demonstrated he is tough enough...............37...............54..........-17

The question is, does winning a debate also win you votes. The first news-making poll seems to be the new Newsweek poll which shows a 9 point swing for Kerry and a 3 point lead. It appears that the sample in the second poll had a plurality of Dems, while the previous one had a plurality of Repubs. It is possible then that the apparent swing is only an artifact due to sampling issues and does not represent a real change. If that interpretation is correct, it does not answer which result is correct. I've noticed that when party ID swings to the right, people on the right don't complain as much, so I won't claim this Newsweek poll is some plot. I will just wait for corroboration, one way or the other.

Via: Powerline, LGF

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